My Oscar load is finally about to blow and though this season the majority of the awards seem blatantly predictable, I will never falter in my viewing and will always watch for tears and gowns. AND PENELOPE CRUZ!
Here’s my predictions as well as who I feel most warrants the award for several of the major categories, i.e. the only ones anyone outside of the film industry, and many insiders as well, care about in the first place.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Mo’nique for Precious
Should Win: Mo’nique for Precious
There’s really nothing to be said for this that hasn’t already been said. She shocked and terrorized audiences with her fervor and emotional depth. Plus the Academy owes her from snubbing her for her brilliance in Beerfest.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds
Though I admit I still haven’t seen The Messengers and probably never will see The Lovely Bones, this one is Waltz’s to lose. Plus is it weird that I find him really attractive in an older and would take care of you but control you kind of way? Maybe I’d best keep those sentiments to myself. Although I did feel that they could have cut on the Matt Damon nomination and given one to Brian Geraghty for his playing a violently conflicted military man in The Hurt Locker whose existential crisis frames arguably the most horrific turn of events for any of the characters in the movie.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart
Should Win: Morgan Freeman for Invictus
I am very conflicted about this one. And I do feel as though on many levels it is an advantageous position in terms of winning Oscars to be playing a specific character that really exists, as Freeman did, mastering the mannerisms and delivery of Nelson Mandela. Whereas Bridges was working more with an archetype, with less of a solid example against which to measure the value of his work. Eh fuck it give them both Oscars.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: ::mumbled through gritting teeth:: Sandra “Miss New Jersey” Bullock for the remake of Mighty Joe Young
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe for Precious
It’s Erin Brockovich all over again. Who knows? Maybe the Academy is smarter than I’m giving them credit for and is realizing that there is potential for danger when marketers will be able to sell movies like, All About Steve by saying, “featuring Academy Award Winning Actress, Sandra Bullock,” and that maybe we shouldn’t reward performers who continuously put out product as low-quality as Hope Floats. There’s a strong possibility this could go to Meryl, who really should be as inundated with awards as she has historically been with nominations. Who knows. There will be hell to pay and a strongly-worded letter though if by the end of the night Sunday, Practical Magic stars two Academy-Award winners.
Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Up
Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
I don’t care if you call me a pretentious hipster! The story and the style through which it was told was innovative and artful. LOVE YOU WES. RIP ROALD.
Best Director
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
Blah blah blah first woman to win this award. ZOMG James Cameron's ex! Who cares? She made an artful and emotional but apolitical and contemporary war film that was packed with adrenaline but was not neither gratuitous nor tacky.
Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for Up in the Air
Should Win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for Up in the Air
If you haven’t seen it yet see it. Yes it is excessively clever to the point that it may sacrifice verisimilitude, but I like wit in my dialogue and I value dialogue in my film. Jason Reitman knows how to do it. Fuck you Juno-haters!
Best Writing, Original Screenplay
Will Win: Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds I don’t have much to say about this one as much as this is the award I’m most likely to be wrong about and it’s likely to go to Tarantino. I just have a hunch.
Best Picture
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
What I think I am doing here is expecting nothing as to avoid disappointment kind of thing. Though I have a strong suspicion that the Academy will award accessibility, heavy-handed metaphor, technological innovation, and James Cameron’s relentless arrogance and lack of appreciation for mankind aside from himself and give it to the blue-people. It would not be the first time that they split the Best Director/Best Picture honors, Ang Lee won for Brokeback Mountain but Best Picture went to Crash (which is just absurd and the fag in me wants to scream homophobia though who knows really) and Steven Spielberg won for Saving Private Ryan but Best Picture was Shakespeare in Love (Judi Dench What WHAAAAAAT). I do very much hope that the little war-film that could triumphs through and I am surprised, as I honestly feel that The Hurt Locker, and several of the other nominees, were superior films, but for now I’ll put my money on Avatar taking home the big one, and viewers will be forced to sit through the king of the world give himself a blow-job up at the podium.
